Question: Anyone have how to find data on Chinese real estate? So much conflicting data on China

Question: Anyone have how to find data on Chinese real estate? So much conflicting data on China


Asked in 2012

Lorenz Lrz: I have been following the market. Here is the big picture. Yes, the property market is under some stress now. The big developers (including those government linked entities) have been raising cash by either selling their existing inventory fast by cutting their ASP aggressively OR raising money from club loans from various consortium formed by mainly chinese banks or from the debt markets. We believe most reputable developers have enough cash to cover their 1Y obligations (maturing debts, construction expenses & etc.). The recent transaction volume has gone up on the back of ASP cut, which is not very healthy. 2012/13 could be the year for consolidation in the industry. On the other hand, most of the banks’ mortgages have low LTV, a lot of these property buyers are quite cash rich. From this perspective, the banks might be able to withstand some hit. If you were to invest in high yield chinese property bonds, beware of the long duration bonds. The risk adjusted return profit might not be as attractive. Watch out!
Shawn Lynes: Yes I was mostly trying to determine Jim Chanos on his idea of the Chinese real estate bubble and it’s effect upon commodity prices. I’m just wondering where he is getting his data.
Maulik Mistry: Hunting for authentic data on Chinese economy is akin to hoping for mummies to spring out from Egyptian pyramids. The secrets about troubles brewing in Chinese banks have been closely guarded for decades. The Oriental economy has, however, managed to camouflage those with some rosy economic details. Its GDP growth and forex balance have always been held in awe. Its tactics are working no more. China’s economic growth is now shrinking faster than during the 2008-09 crises. It seems the liquidity situation is worse in China than it is in Spain currently. That certainly paints a scarier picture. Always remember that the most worrying is that for an economy of China’s size, a sudden hard landing will be extremely painful for the entire world. Prepared for opportunity?

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